Jack's Free Pick Friday: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-110)

The Toronto Blue Jays have a massive advantage on the mound tonight over the Washington Nationals.  They also have the rest advantage after having yesterday off, while the Nationals just completed a 7-game road trip in Texas on Thursday and now will be returning home.

Yusei Kikuchi is one of the more underrated starters in baseball.  He is 2-2 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing just 11 earned runs and 2 homers in 33 2/3 innings with 36 K's.

I love fading Patrick Corbin.  He has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last 5 years.  He went 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 2020, 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA in 2021, 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and 10-15 with a 5.20 ERA in 2023.  He is off to another rough start this season, going 0-3 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in six starts while allowing 24 earned runs and 60 base runners in 31 2/3 innings.

Corbin is 1-2 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto.  Corbin's teams are 13-38 in his 51 career starts as a home underdog and getting outscored by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Friday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Reds OVER 9

The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best offenses in baseball.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game overall and 5.5 runs per game on the road.  The Cincinnati Reds are scoring 5.1 runs per game at home inside hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. I expect some fireworks offensively in Game 1 of this series tonight.  

Cole Irvin is 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA in five starts for the Orioles this season, and 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in two road starts.  He has faced a very soft schedule and takes a big step up in class here.

Hunter Greene is 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA in six starts this season, and 0-2 with a 4.94 ERA in four home starts.  Greene allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings to the Phillies and 6 earned runs in 6 innings to the Brewers in his last two home starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER ticket in Game 1 tonight between two of the best offenses in baseball.  There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.

The Dodgers are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall, 5.6 runs per game at home and 5.9 runs per game against right-handed starters.  The Braves are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall and 5.6 runs per game on the road.

Charlie Morton is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in five starts this season, but 1-0 with a 4.76 ERA in two road starts.  Morton is 1-5 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Dodgers.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Los Angeles.

Gavin Stone is 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in five starts this season, but 1-0 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in three home starts.  Stone allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 innings of an 8-6 win over the Braves in his lone career start against them last season.

The Dodgers are 15-2 OVER in their last 17 games against NL teams that allow 4.0 or fewer runs per game.  Los Angeles is 8-1 OVER in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Cavs/Magic ESPN No-Brainer on Orlando -3.5

The Orlando Magic have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA this season.  They are 31-11 SU & 29-13 ATS at home this season.  I expect them to even this series in Game 6 and win this game by 4-plus points to get us the cover.

The Magic won 121-83 at home in Game 3 and 112-89 at home in Game 4 as these two games in Orlando weren't even close.  They nearly pulled off the upset in Game 5, only losing 104-103 in Cleveland.  It looks like the Magic are the better team in this series right now.

That's especially the case now with the Cavaliers missing Jarrett Allen, who sat out Game 5 with injured ribs.  He has been their most important player in this series with all he does on defense and on the boards.  He must really be injured if he's sitting out a Game 5 of a series that's tied 2-2.

Orlando is 17-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Magic are 7-0 ATS in home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 this season.  JB Bickerstaff is 0-7 SU on the road in the playoffs as the coach of the Cavaliers.  Bet the Magic in Game 6 Friday.